The problem of shot selection in basketball

In basketball, every time the offense produces a shot opportunity the player with the ball must decide whether the shot is worth taking. In this paper, I explore the question of when a team should shoot and when they should pass up the shot by considering a simple theoretical model of the shot selection process, in which the quality of shot opportunities generated by the offense is assumed to fall randomly within a uniform distribution. I derive an answer to the question "how likely must the shot be to go in before the player should take it?", and show that this "lower cutoff" for shot quality $f$ depends crucially on the number $n$ of shot opportunities remaining (say, before the shot clock expires), with larger $n$ demanding that only higher-quality shots should be taken. The function $f(n)$ is also derived in the presence of a finite turnover rate and used to predict the shooting rate of an optimal-shooting team as a function of time. This prediction is compared to observed shooting rates from the National Basketball Association (NBA), and the comparison suggests that NBA players tend to wait too long before shooting and undervalue the probability of committing a turnover.Comment: 7 pages, 2 figures; comparison to NBA data adde

Efficacy and safety of a two-step method of skin preparation for peripheral intravenous catheter insertion: a prospective multi-centre randomised trial

We have developed a two-step procedure for preparing the skin before peripheral venous catheter (PVC) insertions. This procedure involves two successive swabbings with wipes soaked in alcoholic antiseptic. We investigated whether this two-step procedure was as effective and safe as the standard four-step procedure – washing with detergent, rinsing, drying, applying antiseptic – by carrying out a multicentre randomised equivalence study comparing the frequency of precursor signs of infection at the site of insertion for the two skin preparation procedures. The study was carried out over an eight-month period, and 248 PVC insertion sites were evaluated. The two-step procedure was used for 130 subjects and the standard procedure for 118. Taking into account all the confounding factors predisposing patients to the complications studied, the characteristics of the two groups of patients were found to be similar, with no significant differences noted. The incidence of precursor signs of infection was 11 % 24 hours after PVC insertion (27/248), 25 % at 48 hours (50/203) and at 29 % at 72 hours (34/119). Eleven patients had complications necessitating the withdrawal of the PVC: sensitivity of the insertion site, with redness and/or slight swelling and/or a palpable venous cord. No major complications were observed in this study. The frequency of local complications associated with PVCs reported in this study, whether simple or severe, was not affected by the skin preparation procedure used for PVC insertion (two-step or four-step procedure)

Normal radial migration and lamination are maintained in dyslexia-susceptibility candidate gene homolog Kiaa0319 knockout mice

AbstractDevelopmental dyslexia is a common disorder with a strong genetic component, but the underlying molecular mechanisms are still unknown. Several candidate dyslexia-susceptibility genes, including KIAA0319, DYX1C1, and DCDC2, have been identified in humans. RNA interference experiments targeting these genes in rat embryos have shown impairments in neuronal migration, suggesting that defects in radial cortical migration could be involved in the disease mechanism of dyslexia. Here we present the first characterisation of a Kiaa0319 knockout mouse line. Animals lacking KIAA0319 protein do not show anatomical abnormalities in any of the layered structures of the brain. Neurogenesis and radial migration of cortical projection neurons are not altered, and the intrinsic electrophysiological properties of Kiaa0319-deficient neurons do not differ from those of wild-type neurons. Kiaa0319 overexpression in cortex delays radial migration, but does not affect final neuronal position. However, knockout animals show subtle differences suggesting possible alterations in anxiety-related behaviour and in sensorimotor gating. Our results do not reveal a migration disorder in the mouse model, adding to the body of evidence available for Dcdc2 and Dyx1c1 that, unlike in the rat in utero knockdown models, the dyslexia-susceptibility candidate mouse homolog genes do not play an evident role in neuronal migration. However, KIAA0319 protein expression seems to be restricted to the brain, not only in early developmental stages but also in adult mice, indicative of a role of this protein in brain function. The constitutive and conditional knockout lines reported here will be useful tools for further functional analyses of Kiaa0319

Body Mass Index and Employment-Based Health Insurance

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Obese workers incur greater health care costs than normal weight workers. Possibly viewed by employers as an increased financial risk, they may be at a disadvantage in procuring employment that provides health insurance. This study aims to evaluate the association between body mass index [BMI, weight in kilograms divided by the square of height in meters] of employees and their likelihood of holding jobs that include employment-based health insurance [EBHI].</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We used the 2004 Household Components of the nationally representative Medical Expenditure Panel Survey. We utilized logistic regression models with provision of EBHI as the dependent variable in this descriptive analysis. The key independent variable was BMI, with adjustments for the domains of demographics, social-economic status, workplace/job characteristics, and health behavior/status. BMI was classified as normal weight (18.5–24.9), overweight (25.0–29.9), or obese (≥ 30.0). There were 11,833 eligible respondents in the analysis.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Among employed adults, obese workers [adjusted probability (AP) = 0.62, (0.60, 0.65)] (<it>P </it>= 0.005) were more likely to be employed in jobs with EBHI than their normal weight counterparts [AP = 0.57, (0.55, 0.60)]. Overweight workers were also more likely to hold jobs with EBHI than normal weight workers, but the difference did not reach statistical significance [AP = 0.61 (0.58, 0.63)] (<it>P </it>= 0.052). There were no interaction effects between BMI and gender or age.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>In this nationally representative sample, we detected an association between workers' increasing BMI and their likelihood of being employed in positions that include EBHI. These findings suggest that obese workers are more likely to have EBHI than other workers.</p

The health outcomes and physical activity in preschoolers (HOPP) study: rationale and design

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The early years are the period of growth for which we know the least about the impact of physical activity. In contrast, we know that more than 90 % of school-aged Canadian children, for example, are not meeting physical activity recommendations. Such an activity crisis is a major contributor to recent trends in childhood obesity, to which preschoolers are not immune. The World Health Organization estimated that more than 42 million children under the age of 5 years were overweight world-wide in 2010. If an activity crisis exists during the preschool years, we should also be concerned about its broader impact on health. Unfortunately, the relationship between physical activity and health during the early years is poorly understood. The goal of the Health Outcomes and Physical activity in Preschoolers (HOPP) study is to describe how the prevalence and patterns of physical activity in preschoolers are associated with indices of health.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The HOPP study is a prospective cohort study. We aim to recruit 400 3- to 5-year-old children (equal number of boys and girls) and test them once per year for 3 years. Each annual assessment involves 2 laboratory visits and 7 consecutive days of physical activity monitoring with protocols developed in our pilot work. At visit 1, we assess body composition, aerobic fitness, short-term muscle power, motor skills, and have the parents complete a series of questionnaires related to their child’s physical activity, health-related quality of life and general behaviour. Over 7 consecutive days each child wears an accelerometer on his/her waist to objectively monitor physical activity. The accelerometer is programmed to record movement every 3 s, which is needed to accurately capture the intensity of physical activity. At visit 2, we assess vascular structure and function using ultrasound. To assess the associations between physical activity and health outcomes, our primary analysis will involve mixed-effects models for longitudinal analyses.</p> <p>Discussion</p> <p>The HOPP study addresses a significant gap in health research and our findings will hold the potential to shape public health policy for active living during the early years.</p

Amyloid-β, Tau, and Cognition in Cognitively Normal Older Individuals: Examining the Necessity to Adjust for Biomarker Status in Normative Data

We investigated whether amyloid-β (Aβ) and tau affected cognition in cognitively normal (CN) individuals, and whether norms for neuropsychological tests based on biomarker-negative individuals would improve early detection of dementia. We included 907 CN individuals from 8 European cohorts and from the Alzheimer's disease Neuroimaging Initiative. All individuals were aged above 40, had Aβ status and neuropsychological data available. Linear mixed models were used to assess the associations of Aβ and tau with five neuropsychological tests assessing memory (immediate and delayed recall of Auditory Verbal Learning Test, AVLT), verbal fluency (Verbal Fluency Test, VFT), attention and executive functioning (Trail Making Test, TMT, part A and B). All test except the VFT were associated with Aβ status and this influence was augmented by age. We found no influence of tau on any of the cognitive tests. For the AVLT Immediate and Delayed recall and the TMT part A and B, we calculated norms in individuals without Aβ pathology (Aβ- norms), which we validated in an independent memory-clinic cohort by comparing their predictive accuracy to published norms. For memory tests, the Aβ- norms rightfully identified an additional group of individuals at risk of dementia. For non-memory test we found no difference. We confirmed the relationship between Aβ and cognition in cognitively normal individuals. The Aβ- norms for memory tests in combination with published norms improve prognostic accuracy of dementia

Diagnostic and economic evaluation of new biomarkers for Alzheimer's disease: the research protocol of a prospective cohort study

Doc number: 72 Abstract Background: New research criteria for the diagnosis of Alzheimer's disease (AD) have recently been developed to enable an early diagnosis of AD pathophysiology by relying on emerging biomarkers. To enable efficient allocation of health care resources, evidence is needed to support decision makers on the adoption of emerging biomarkers in clinical practice. The research goals are to 1) assess the diagnostic test accuracy of current clinical diagnostic work-up and emerging biomarkers in MRI, PET and CSF, 2) perform a cost-consequence analysis and 3) assess long-term cost-effectiveness by an economic model. Methods/design: In a cohort design 241 consecutive patients suspected of having a primary neurodegenerative disease are approached in four academic memory clinics and followed for two years. Clinical data and data on quality of life, costs and emerging biomarkers are gathered. Diagnostic test accuracy is determined by relating the clinical practice and new research criteria diagnoses to a reference diagnosis. The clinical practice diagnosis at baseline is reflected by a consensus procedure among experts using clinical information only (no biomarkers). The diagnosis based on the new research criteria is reflected by decision rules that combine clinical and biomarker information. The reference diagnosis is determined by a consensus procedure among experts based on clinical information on the course of symptoms over a two-year time period. A decision analytic model is built combining available evidence from different resources among which (accuracy) results from the study, literature and expert opinion to assess long-term cost-effectiveness of the emerging biomarkers. Discussion: Several other multi-centre trials study the relative value of new biomarkers for early evaluation of AD and related disorders. The uniqueness of this study is the assessment of resource utilization and quality of life to enable an economic evaluation. The study results are generalizable to a population of patients who are referred to a memory clinic due to their memory problems. Trial registration: NCT0145089

Approach to epigenetic analysis in language disorders

Language and learning disorders such as reading disability and language impairment are recognized to be subject to substantial genetic influences, but few causal mutations have been identified in the coding regions of candidate genes. Association analyses of single nucleotide polymorphisms have suggested the involvement of regulatory regions of these genes, and a few mutations affecting gene expression levels have been identified, indicating that the quantity rather than the quality of the gene product may be most relevant for these disorders. In addition, several of the candidate genes appear to be involved in neuronal migration, confirming the importance of early developmental processes. Accordingly, alterations in epigenetic processes such as DNA methylation and histone modification are likely to be important in the causes of language and learning disorders based on their functions in gene regulation. Epigenetic processes direct the differentiation of cells in early development when neurological pathways are set down, and mutations in genes involved in epigenetic regulation are known to cause cognitive disorders in humans. Epigenetic processes also regulate the changes in gene expression in response to learning, and alterations in histone modification are associated with learning and memory deficits in animals. Genetic defects in histone modification have been reversed in animals through therapeutic interventions resulting in rescue of these deficits, making it particularly important to investigate their potential contribution to learning disorders in humans

P2 purinergic receptor modulation of cytokine production

Cytokines serve important functions in controlling host immunity. Cells involved in the synthesis of these polypeptide mediators have evolved highly regulated processes to ensure that production is carefully balanced. In inflammatory and immune disorders, however, mis-regulation of the production and/or activity of cytokines is recognized as a major contributor to the disease process, and therapeutics that target individual cytokines are providing very effective treatment options in the clinic. Leukocytes are the principle producers of a number of key cytokines, and these cells also express numerous members of the purinergic P2 receptor family. Studies in several cellular systems have provided evidence that P2 receptor modulation can affect cytokine production, and mechanistic features of this regulation have emerged. This review highlights three separate examples corresponding to (1) P2Y6 receptor mediated impact on interleukin (IL)-8 production, (2) P2Y11 receptor-mediated affects on IL-12/23 output, and (3) P2X7 receptor mediated IL-1β posttranslational processing. These examples demonstrate important roles of purinergic receptors in the modulation of cytokine production. Extension of these cellular observations to in vivo situations may lead to new therapeutic strategies for treating cytokine-mediated diseases